Validity and consistency assessment of accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry.

BACKGROUND: Accident analysis is the main aspect of accident investigation. It includes the method of connecting different causes in a procedural way. Therefore, it is important to use valid and reliable methods for the investigation of different causal factors of accidents, especially the noteworthy ones.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to prominently assess the accuracy (sensitivity index [SI]) and consistency of the six most commonly used accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry.

METHODS: In order to evaluate the methods of accident analysis, two real case studies (process safety and personal accident) from the petroleum industry were analyzed by 10 assessors. The accuracy and consistency of these methods were then evaluated. The assessors were trained in the workshop of accident analysis methods.

RESULTS: The systematic cause analysis technique and bowtie methods gained the greatest SI scores for both personal and process safety accidents, respectively. The best average results of the consistency in a single method (based on 10 independent assessors) were in the region of 70%.

CONCLUSION: This study confirmed that the application of methods with pre-defined causes and a logic tree could enhance the sensitivity and consistency of accident analysis.