Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index scores predict major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality among systemic lupus erythematosus patients.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular events are the most frequent cause of death or disability among people with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). However, the causes of this increased the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) are not completely understood. The Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (ACCI) is a prognostic classification that was initially developed for patients who have a number of comorbid conditions and the ACCI has been validated in many clinical settings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this study, 5998 patients were enrolled from the National Health Research Institute Database of Taiwan. All the patients' sequential clinical data related to their diagnosis of SLE were reviewed from 2004 to 2007 to determine their risk of MACE occurrence and of all-cause mortality using their ACCI scores.

RESULTS: The predictive accuracy of the ACCI scores in relation to MACE occurrence among SLE patients was estimated and the C-statistic for this curve was found to be 0.687 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.664-0.709). The distribution of ACCI scores for MACE patients was 4.7%, 10.3%, 11.4%, and 21.5% for those with ACCI scores in the ranges of 0-1, 2-3, 4-5, and >6, respectively. A plot of the cumulative risk also showed a much higher risk among SLE patients with an ACCI score of >6. When patients were divided into different groups based on their ACCI scores, those with ACCI scores of >6 had an adjusted hazards ratio of 4.88 (95% CI: 3.84-6.19; P < 0.001) as compared to those with ACCI scores of 0-1.

CONCLUSION: SLE patients with higher ACCI scores have a significantly higher risk of a MACE and of all-cause mortality. Our results suggested that ACCI scores may be useful as an index for estimating global cardiovascular risk among patients with SLE.