High risk of conversion to diabetes in first-degree relatives of individuals with young-onset type 2 diabetes: a 12-year follow-up analysis.

AIM: Family history of diabetes is an established risk factor for Type 2 diabetes, but the impact of a family history of young-onset diabetes (onset < 40 years) on future risk of diabetes among first-degree relatives is unclear. In this prospective study, we examined the influence of family history of late- versus young-onset diabetes on the development of diabetes in a young to middle-aged Chinese population.

METHODS: Some 365 siblings identified through probands with Type 2 diabetes and 452 participants from a community-based health awareness project (aged 18-55 years) who underwent metabolic assessment during the period 1998-2002 were followed to 2012-2013 to determine their glycaemic status. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to investigate the association of family history of diabetes presented at different age categories with development of diabetes.

RESULTS: In this cohort, 53.4% (n = 167) of participants with a family history of young-onset diabetes, 30.1% (n = 68) of those with a family history of late-onset diabetes and 14.4% (n = 40) of those without a family history developed diabetes. Using logistic regression, family history of diabetes presented at ages ≥ 50, 40-49, 30-39 and < 30 years, increased conversion to diabetes with respective odds ratios of 2.4, 5.8, 9.4 and 7.0 (P < 0.001 for all), after adjustment for socio-economic status, smoking, obesity, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Among participants without diabetes at baseline, risk association of family history of late-onset diabetes with incident diabetes was not sustained, whereas that of family history of young-onset diabetes remained robust on further adjustment for baseline glycaemic measurements.

CONCLUSIONS: First-degree relatives of people with Type 2 diabetes, especially relatives of those with young-onset diabetes, are at high risk for diabetes.