Predictors of adverse outcome in patients of tuberculous meningitis in a multi-centric study from India.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to investigate the factors which may predict mortality and neurological disability at one year follow up in patients of tuberculous meningitis (TBM) in India.

METHODOLOGY: Patients with TBM were prospectively enrolled from July 2012 to September 2014 from four tertiary care hospitals of Delhi. The demographic characteristics, clinical features and laboratory findings were collected and patients were followed up till 1 year. These were analyzed by univariate and multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of adverse patient outcome at 1 year follow up.

RESULTS: Out of 478 patients enrolled, 391 patients could be followed up to 1 year. Sixty-four patients (16.3%) died and 150 patients (39%) survived with one or more neurological disability. Altered sensorium, motor deficit, cranial nerve palsy, seizures, isolation of M. tuberculosis and presence of multi-drug resistance were independently associated with any adverse outcome (death or disability) but by multivariate analysis only motor deficit, altered sensorium and isolation of M. tuberculosis on culture produced a statistically significant model for prediction of patient outcome.

CONCLUSION: The three-predictor model with motor deficit, altered sensorium and isolation of M. tuberculosis produced a statistically significant model with correct prediction rate of 60.4%. These three variables predicted death with odds ratio of 39.2, 6.7 and 2.1 respectively in comparison to recovery whereas only motor deficit and isolation of M. tuberculosis predicted neurological disability at 1 year with odds ratio of 3.9, 2.4 respectively.