Development and validation of nomogram based on lncRNA ZFAS1 for predicting survival in lymph node-negative esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence of a relationship between long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) and cancer. This study aimed to examine the prognostic value of the lncRNA ZFAS1 in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

RESULTS: The results showed that ZFAS1 expression was significantly higher in ESCC tissues compared with the corresponding adjacent normal tissues (P < 0.001). ESCC patients with high ZFAS1 expression had a poor overall survival (OS). Histological grade, T stage and ZFAS1 expression were integrated to develop the nomogram. The nomogram showed a significantly better prediction of OS for patients with lymph node-negative ESCC. The ROC curve also showed higher specificity and sensitivity for predicting 3- and 5-year ESCC patient survival compared with the AJCC staging system. The decision curve analysis also indicated a greater potential for the nomogram in clinical application compared with the AJCC staging system. Importantly, our findings were supported by a validation cohort.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively investigated 398 lymph node-negative ESCC patients. Data from the primary cohort (n = 246) were used to develop a multivariate nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated for discrimination and calibration with bootstrap samples and was externally validated with an independent patient cohort (n = 152).

CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed nomogram, which integrates clinicopathological factors and ZFAS1 expression, can accurately predict the prognosis of lymph node-negative ESCC patients without preoperative chemoradiotherapy.