[Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps].

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province. Methods: On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters. Results: The basic reproduction number (R(0)) for children in schools was 4.49 (95%CI: 4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95%CI: 2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014. Conclusions: Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description. The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients. Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps.