[Health economic evaluation of bivalent human papilloma virus vaccine in China: based on the dynamic model].

Objective: This study aims to evaluate the prevention effect and cost-effectiveness of a prophylactic bivalent human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine. Methods: A multiple health status dynamic model was developed, including natural history of diseases and prevention strategies. We built 19 prevention strategies including visual inspection with acetic acid/lugol's iodine (VIA/VILI) and/or 3 does prophylactic bivalent HPV vaccine administered to adolescent girls at the age of 15 years old every year under the assumption that vaccine coverage and screening coverage were 70%. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), optimal price of 3 does vaccine and cost-effectiveness frontier of these strategies were analyzed compared with no-intervention. The ICER threshold is 152 087 CNY. Results: Compared with no-intervention, Routine vaccination reduced the incidence of cervical cancer by 69.5%, superior to 5 strategies including VIA/VILI screening only. The range of effect was between 9.0% and 69.2%, and the effect of strategy increased significantly with the increase of screening frequency. Combination vaccination with screening at ages of 35 reduced the incidence of cervical cancer by 72.0%, and the effect increased with the increase of screening frequency. Combination vaccination with screening every 3 years between (35-64) years old reduced the incidence by 89.4%. Compared with no-intervention, the ICER of combination vaccination with screening twice between 35 years and 64 years was 121 292 CNY/life-year, which was cost-effective. The price of vaccine had a significant impact on the ICER of the strategy; when the vaccine price was less than 600 CNY, only routine vaccination or supplementary vaccination between 16-39 years old after routine vaccination was cost-effective; when the vaccine price was less than 1 200 CNY, supplementary vaccination between 16-19 years old plus VIA/VILI was cost-effective. Conclusion: Ther prevention strategy was cost-effective, which could effectively reduce the incidence of cervical cancer by implementation of HPV vaccination combined with VIA/VILI in suitable aging females.