Safety analysis of urban arterials at the meso level.

Urban arterials form the main structure of street networks. They typically have multiple lanes, high traffic volume, and high crash frequency. Classical crash prediction models investigate the relationship between arterial characteristics and traffic safety by treating road segments and intersections as isolated units. This micro-level analysis does not work when examining urban arterial crashes because signal spacing is typically short for urban arterials, and there are interactions between intersections and road segments that classical models do not accommodate. Signal spacing also has safety effects on both intersections and road segments that classical models cannot fully account for because they allocate crashes separately to intersections and road segments. In addition, classical models do not consider the impact on arterial safety of the immediately surrounding street network pattern. This study proposes a new modeling methodology that will offer an integrated treatment of intersections and road segments by combining signalized intersections and their adjacent road segments into a single unit based on road geometric design characteristics and operational conditions. These are called meso-level units because they offer an analytical approach between micro and macro. The safety effects of signal spacing and street network pattern were estimated for this study based on 118 meso-level units obtained from 21 urban arterials in Shanghai, and were examined using CAR (conditional auto regressive) models that corrected for spatial correlation among the units within individual arterials. Results showed shorter arterial signal spacing was associated with higher total and PDO (property damage only) crashes, while arterials with a greater number of parallel roads were associated with lower total, PDO, and injury crashes. The findings from this study can be used in the traffic safety planning, design, and management of urban arterials.