Growth responses to elevated temperatures and the importance of ontogenetic niche shifts in Bromeliaceae.

Epiphytic bromeliads represent a major component of Neotropical forests, but the potential effect of climate change on these plants is unclear. We investigated whether and how bromeliads are affected by the predicted 3°C temperature rise by the end of the century. We conducted growth experiments with 17 epiphytic bromeliad species at different temperatures to determine their fundamental thermal niches. By comparing those with niches for germination, we tested whether ontogenetic niche shift or niche contraction occurs in Bromeliaceae. Applying a classical growth analysis, we assessed the relative importance of the underlying growth components on interspecific variations in growth. Members of two bromeliad subfamilies differed in their response to elevated temperatures: Tillandsioideae may be negatively affected, whereas Bromelioideae moved closer to their thermal optimum. Across different ontogenetic stages, thermal niche characteristics revealed both niche shift and niche contraction. Interspecific variation in growth was driven almost exclusively by net assimilation rate at all temperatures. We conclude that the vulnerability of tropical plants to a future increase in temperature may be more variable than suggested by previous studies. We emphasize the importance of assessing niche breadth over multiple life stages and the need for better microclimatic data to link laboratory data with field conditions.