Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates.

METHODS: This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models.

RESULTS: Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RRAdjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RRAdjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively).

CONCLUSION: The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country.