A developmental etiological model for drug abuse in men.

BACKGROUND: We attempt to develop a relatively comprehensive structural model of risk factors for drug abuse (DA) in Swedish men that illustrates developmental and mediational processes.

METHODS: We examined 20 risk factors for DA in 48,369 men undergoing conscription examinations in 1969-70 followed until 2011 when 2.34% (n=1134) of them had DA ascertained in medical, criminal and pharmacy registries. Risk factors were organized into four developmental tiers reflecting i) birth, ii) childhood/early adolescence, iii) late adolescence, and iv) young adulthood. Structural equational model fitting was performed using Mplus.

RESULTS: The best fitting model explained 47.8% of the variance in DA. The most prominent predictors, in order, were: early adolescent externalizing behavior, early adult criminal behavior, early adolescent internalizing behavior, early adult unemployment, early adult alcohol use disorder, and late adolescent drug use. Two major inter-connecting pathways emerged reflecting i) genetic/familial risk and ii) family dysfunction and psychosocial adversity. Generated on a first and tested on a second random half of the sample, a model from these variables predicted DA with an ROC area under the curve of 83.6%. Fifty-nine percent of DA cases arose from subjects in the top decile of risk.

CONCLUSIONS: DA in men is a highly multifactorial syndrome with risk arising from familial-genetic, psychosocial, behavioral and psychological factors acting and interacting over development. Among the multiple predisposing factors for DA, a range of psychosocial adversities, externalizing psychopathology and lack of social constraints in early adulthood are predominant.