An evaluation of cause-of-death trends from recent decades based on registered deaths in Turkey.

OBJECTIVES: Although cause-of-death analyses are very important to define public health policy priorities and to evaluate health programs, there is very limited knowledge about mortality profiles and trends in Turkey. The aim of this study was to measure the trends in mortality within three broad cause-of-death groups and their distribution by age groups and gender and to describe the changes of leading causes of death between 1980 and 2013 in Turkey.

STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive study.

METHODS: In the study, data on the number of deaths by year, gender, age and cause was obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The causes of death were classified as group I: communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions; group II: non-communicable diseases (NCDs); and group III: injuries. Unknown or ill-defined causes of death were distributed within group I and group II. The percentage distribution of the cause-of-death groups by gender and age groups between 1980 and 2013 was identified. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 of broad causes-of-death groups were calculated using European Standard Population 1976 between 1980 and 2008. Changes in mortality rates per hundred were calculated using the formula ([the rate of last year of the period-the rate of the first year of the period]/the rate of the first year of the period). Gender and age-specific data were analyzed using the Joinpoint software to examine trends and significant changes in trends of mortality rates.

RESULTS: Crude death rates for group I, group II, and group III were 157.3, 147.2, and 21.4 per 100,000 in 1980 and 35.3, 377.5, and 15.8 in 2008 for males; 161.8, 120.2, and 5.8 in 1980 and 38.6, 318.4, and 6.4 in 2008 for females, respectively. ASMRs for group I, group II, and group III were 146.3, 394.3, and 29.3 per 100,000 in 1980 and 49.7, 723.6, and 18.8 in 2008 for males; 138.0, 291.5, and 7.6 per 100,000 in 1980 and 47.7, 478.8, and 7.2 in 2008 for females, respectively. The mortality rates of group I for almost all age groups particularly below 5 years of age decreased significantly.

CONCLUSION: This study indicates that Turkey is at an advanced stage in the epidemiological transition, with the majority of the causes of death from NCDs. Considering the regional differences, it is necessary to carry out studies on the specific details of epidemiological transition and the social determinants of deaths in Turkey.