A novel cardiovascular death prediction model for Chinese individuals: A prospective cohort study of 381,963 study participants.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed at developing a novel risk prediction model for death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) for Chinese individuals, based upon a large cohort from Taiwan.

METHODS: This Chinese cohort came from Taiwan, with 381,963 individuals free from CVD, recruited from a private health surveillance program. With a median follow-up of 8.8 years, 1894 CVD deaths out of a total of 10,829 deaths were identified by linking cohort ID with the National Death File.

RESULTS: A novel CVD death risk prediction model for Chinese individuals was established from this cohort. An increase in the resting heart rate was the statistically independent predictor in this model. The discriminatory accuracy was measured by generating the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.913 (95% CI = 0.907 to 0.920).

CONCLUSIONS: A novel cardiovascular death prediction model with high predictability for Chinese individuals was demonstrated in the present study.