Heterogeneity in national U.S. mortality trends within heart disease subgroups, 2000-2015.

BACKGROUND: The long-term downward national U.S. trend in heart disease-related mortality slowed substantially during 2011-2014 before turning upward in 2015. Examining mortality trends in the major subgroups of heart disease may provide insight into potentially more targeted and effective prevention and treatment approaches to promote favorable trajectories. We examined national trends between 2000 and 2015 in mortality attributed to major heart disease subgroups including ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and all other types of heart disease.

METHODS: Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) data system, we determined national trends in age-standardized mortality rates attributed to ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and other heart diseases from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2011, and from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2015. Annual rate of changes in mortality attributed to ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and other heart diseases for 2000-2011 and 2011-2015 were compared.

RESULTS: Death attributed to ischemic heart disease declined from 2000 to 2015, but the rate of decline slowed from 4.96% (95% confidence interval 4.77%-5.15%) for 2000-2011 to 2.66% (2.00%-3.31%) for 2011-2015. In contrast, death attributed to heart failure and all other causes of heart disease declined from 2000 to 2011 at annual rates of 1.94% (1.77%-2.11%) and 0.64% (0.44%-0.82%) respectively, but increased from 2011 to 2015 at annual rates of 3.73% (3.21% 4.26%) and 1.89% (1.33-2.46%). Differences in 2000-2011 and 2011-2015 decline rates were statistically significant for all 3 endpoints overall, by sex, and all race/ethnicity groups except Asian/Pacific Islanders (heart failure only significant) and American Indian/Alaskan Natives.

CONCLUSIONS: While the long-term decline in death attributed to heart disease slowed between 2011 and 2014 nationally before turning upward in 2015, heterogeneity existed in the trajectories attributed to heart disease subgroups, with ischemic heart disease mortality continuing to decline while death attributed to heart failure and other heart diseases switched from a downward to upward trend. While systematic efforts to prevent and treat ischemic heart disease continue to be effective, urgent attention is needed to address the challenge of heart failure.