Influence of true within-herd prevalence of small ruminant lentivirus infection in goats on agreement between serological immunoenzymatic tests.

The study was conducted to evaluate influence of the true within-herd prevalence of small ruminant lentivirus (SRLV) infection on agreement beyond chance between three different types of commercial serological ELISAs. Blood samples were collected from 865 goats from 12 dairy goat herds. Serum samples were tested using three commercial ELISA kits: whole-virus indirect ELISA (wELISA), indirect ELISA based on recombined TM and CA antigens (TM/CA-ELISA), and competitive-inhibition ELISA based on SU antigen (SU-ELISA). Herds were classed into three prevalence strata of high (>50%), moderate (10-50%) and low (<10%) true within-herd prevalence of SRLV infection. The latter was estimated on the basis of results of wELISA adjusted by its sensitivity and specificity. Agreement beyond chance between the three ELISAs was assessed at two levels. First, the general agreement was determined using two coefficients corrected for chance-agreement: Cohen's kappa and Gwet's AC1 . Then, agreement between tests was evaluated using Gwet's AC1 separately in the three prevalence strata and compared between them by computing 95% confidence intervals for differences with a Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. The general agreement between the three tests was very good: wELISA and TM/CA-ELISA - Cohen's kappa of 81.8% (CI 95%: 77.9% to 85.7%), Gwet's AC1 of 82.7% (CI 95%: 79.0% to 86.4%); wELISA and SU-ELISA - Cohen's kappa of 83.2% (CI 95%: 79.4% to 86.9%), Gwet's AC1 of 83.9% (CI 95%: 80.4% to 87.5%); TM/CA-ELISA and SU-ELISA - Cohen's kappa of 86.0% (CI 95%: 82.6% to 89.5%), Gwet's AC1 of 86.9% (CI 95%: 83.6% to 90.1%). However, agreement between ELISAs was significantly related to the within-herd true prevalence - it was significantly lower (although still high) when within-herd true prevalence was moderate (Gwet's AC1 between 67.2% and 78.7%), whereas remained very high, when true within-herd prevalence was either >50% (Gwet's AC1 between 91.9% and 98.8%) or <10% (Gwet's AC1 between 94.7% and 98.4%). Concluding, the three different commercial ELISAs for SRLV infection in goats available on the market yield highly consistent results. However, their agreement is affected by the true within-herd prevalence in a tested population, and the worse (although still high) agreement should be expected, when the percentage of infected goats is moderate.