Survival after recurrence of stage I-III breast, colorectal, or lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: The experiences of patients with recurrent cancer are assumed to reflect those of patients with de novo stage IV disease; yet, little is truly known because most registries lack recurrence status. Using two databases with excellent recurrence and death information, we examined determinants of survival duration after recurrence of breast (BC), colorectal (CRC), and lung cancers (LC).

METHODS: Recurrence status was abstracted from the medical records of patients who participated in the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance study and who received care at two Cancer Research Network sites-the Colorado and Northwest regions of Kaiser Permanente. The analysis included 1653 patients who developed recurrence after completing definitive therapy for stages I-III cancer. Multivariable modeling identified independent determinants of survival duration after recurrence, controlling for other factors.

RESULTS: Through 60 months' average follow-up, survival after recurrence for BC, CRC, and LC were 28.4, 23.1 and 16.1 months, respectively. Several factors were independently associated with shorter survival for all three cancers, including higher initial stage (III vs. I: BC -9.9 months; CRC -6.9 months; LC -7.4 months; P≤0.01). Factors associated with shorter survival for selected cancers included: distant/regional recurrence for BC and CRC; current/former smoker for LC; high grade for CRC; and <4-year time-to-recurrence for BC.

CONCLUSIONS: Initial stage predicts survival duration after recurrence, whereas time-to-recurrence usually does not. The impact of biologic characteristics (e.g., grade, hormone-receptor status) on survival duration after recurrence needs further study. Predictors of survival duration after recurrence may help facilitate patient decision-making.