Integrating cytokines and angiogenic factors and tumour bulk with selected clinical criteria improves determination of prognosis in advanced renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In two clinical trials of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) receptor inhibitor pazopanib in advanced renal cell carcinoma (mRCC), we found interleukin-6 as predictive of pazopanib benefit. We evaluated the prognostic significance of candidate cytokines and angiogenic factors (CAFs) identified in that work relative to accepted clinical parameters.

METHODS: Seven preselected plasma CAFs (interleukin-6, interleukin-8, osteopontin, VEGF, hepatocyte growth factor, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP-1), and E-selectin) were measured using multiplex ELISA in plasma collected pretreatment from 343 mRCC patients participating in the phase 3 registration trial of pazopanib vs placebo (NCT00334282). Tumour burden (per sum of longest diameters (SLD)) and 10 other clinical factors were also analysed for association with overall survival (OS; based on initial treatment assignment).

RESULTS: Osteopontin, interleukin-6, and TIMP-1 were independently associated with OS in multivariable analysis. A model combining the three CAFs and five clinical variables (including SLD) had higher prognostic accuracy than the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium criteria (concordance-index 0.75 vs 0.67, respectively), and distinguished two groups of patients within the original intermediate risk category.

CONCLUSIONS: A prognostic model incorporating osteopontin, interleukin-6, TIMP-1, tumour burden, and selected clinical criteria increased prognostic accuracy for OS determination in mRCC patients.