[Survival time of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in China, 2010].

Objective: To analyze the survival time of newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in China in 2010. Methods: The reporting cards and follow-up cards of HIV/AIDS cases reported as of 31 December 2015 were collected from national AIDS information system. The newly diagnosed HIV/AIDS cases in 2010 were selected. The information of follow-up intervention, CD(4+)T cells (CD(4)) testing, antiretroviral treatment and mortality of the cases from 2010 to 2015 were analyzed. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival probability. Kaplan-Meier was used to draw survival curve and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related to survival time. Results: Of the 40 335 HIV/AIDS cases, 11 975(29.7%) died of AIDS related diseases. The median survival time was 63.1 months (95%CI: 63.0-63.2), and the survival rates in 1 year and 5 years were 81.2% and 69.9%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the risk factors for death in the HIV/AIDS cases were age (25-34 years old vs. 15-24 years old: HR=1.41, 95%CI: 1.29-1.54; 35-34 years old vs. 15-24 years old: HR=1.90, 95%CI: 1.74-2.07; 45-54 years old vs. 15-24 years old: HR=2.24, 95%CI: 2.04-2.46; ≥55 years old vs. 15-24 years old: HR=2.81, 95%CI: 2.57-3.08). The protective factors for death in the HIV/AIDS cases were level of baseline CD(4) counts (CD(4)≥500 cells/μl vs. CD(4)<200 cells/μl: HR=0.12, 95%CI: 0.11-0.13), receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART vs. no ART: HR=0.11,95%CI: 0.10-0.12). Conclusion: Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases might be influenced by age, baseline CD(4) count and access to antiretroviral therapy. The early diagnosed and early antiretroviral therapy could extend the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases.