The Detrimental Consequences of Overestimating Future Health in Late Life.

Objectives: Although forecasting a positive future can be adaptive, it may not be when expectations are unmet. Our study examined whether such inaccurate expectations about future health status (overestimation) were maladaptive for older adults who commonly experience late life declines in physical functioning.

Method: We analyzed data from the nationally representative German Aging Survey (DEAS; 1996-2011; n = 2,539; age range 60-85 years) using multilevel growth models that assessed the influence of inaccurate health expectations on older adults' physical functioning over a 9-year period.

Results: Overestimating future health status predicted reduced day-to-day physical functioning when age, gender, and self-rated health were controlled. A Time × Overestimation interaction indicated that the negative effects of overestimation on physical functioning became more pronounced over the 9-year period.

Discussion: Results suggest that repeatedly unmet health expectations may undermine motivational resources and accelerate late life declines in physical functioning.