A Model for Assessing the Clinical and Economic Benefits of Bone-forming Agents for Reducing Fractures in Postmenopausal Women at High, Near-term Risk of Osteoporotic Fracture.

PURPOSE: The goal of this study was to assess and compare the potential clinical and economic value of emerging bone-forming agents using the only currently available agent, teriparatide, as a reference case in patients at high, near-term (imminent, 1- to 2-year) risk of osteoporotic fractures, extending to a lifetime horizon with sequenced antiresorptive agents for maintenance treatment.

METHODS: Analyses were performed by using a Markov cohort model accounting for time-specific fracture protection effects of bone-forming agents followed by antiresorptive treatment with denosumab. The alternative bone-forming agent profiles were defined by using assumptions regarding the onset and total magnitude of protection against fractures with teriparatide. The model cohort comprised 70-year-old female patients with T scores below -2.5 and a previous vertebral fracture. Outcomes included clinical fractures, direct costs, and quality-adjusted life years. The simulated treatment strategies were compared by calculating their incremental "value" (net monetary benefit).

FINDINGS: Improvements in the onset and magnitude of fracture protection (vs the teriparatide reference case) produced a net monetary benefit of $17,000,000 per 10,000 treated patients during the (1.5-year) bone-forming agent treatment period and $80,000,000 over a lifetime horizon that included 3.5 years of maintenance treatment with denosumab.

IMPLICATIONS: Incorporating time-specific fracture effects in the Markov cohort model allowed for estimation of a range of cost savings, quality-adjusted life years gained, and clinical fractures avoided at different levels of fracture protection onset and magnitude. Results provide a first estimate of the potential "value" new bone-forming agents (romosozumab and abaloparatide) may confer relative to teriparatide.