Schmallenberg virus: Predicting within-herd seroprevalence using bulk-tank milk antibody titres and exploring individual animal antibody titres using empirical distribution functions (EDF).

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is transmitted by Culicoides spp. biting midges and can cause abortions and congenital malformations in ruminants and milk drop in dairy cattle. Estimating true within-herd seroprevalence is an essential component of efficient and cost-effective SBV surveillance programs. The objectives of this study were: (1) determine the correlation between bulk-tank milk (BTM)-ELISA results and within-herd seroprevalence, (2) evaluate the ability of BTM-ELISA results to predict within-herd seroprevalence and (3) explore the distributions of individual animal serology results using novel statistical methodology. BTM samples (n=24) and blood samples (n=4019) collected from all lactating cows contributing to the BTM in 26 Irish dairy herds (58-444 cows/herd) in 2014 located in a region exposed to SBV in 2012/2013, were analysed for SBV-specific antibodies using IDVet® ELISA kits. The correlation between BTM-ELISA results and within-herd seroprevalence was determined by calculating Pearson's correlation coefficient. Linear regression models were used to assess the ability of BTM-ELISA results to predict within-herd seroprevalence. The distributions of individual animal serology results were explored by determining the empirical distribution functions (EDF) of the individual animal serum ELISA results in each herd. EDFs were compared pairwise across herds, using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. Herds with similar BTM-ELISA results, herds with similar within-herd seroprevalence and herds with similar mean-herd serology ELISA results were stratified in order to explore their respective paired-herd EDF comparisons. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. Twenty-two herds were BTM-ELISA-positive (within-herd seroprevalence 30.6-100%) and two herds were BTM-ELISA-negative (within-herd seroprevalence 10.7 and 16.2%) indicating BTM-ELISA-negative herds can have seropositive animals present. BTM-ELISA results were highly correlated (r=0.807, p<0.0001) with, and predictive of (R2 =0.832, p<0.0001) of within-herd seroprevalence. Predictions were most accurate for upper-range BTM-ELISA antibody titres, while they were less accurate at higher and lower antibody titres. This is likely a result of the overall high within-herd seroprevalence. In herds with similar BTM-ELISA results 82% of the paired-herd EDF comparisons were significantly different. In herds with similar within-herd seroprevalence and in herds with similar mean-herd serology ELISA results, 46% and 47% of the paired-herd EDF comparisons were significantly different, respectively. These results demonstrate that BTM antibody titres are highly predictive of within-herd seroprevalence in an SBV exposed region. Furthermore, exploring the serum EDFs revealed that the variation observed in the predicted within-herd seroprevalence in the regression models is likely a result of individual animal variation in serum antibody titres in these herds.