Single variant bottleneck in the early dynamics of H. influenzae bacteremia in neonatal rats questions the theory of independent action.

There is an abundance of information about the genetic basis, physiological and molecular mechanisms of bacterial pathogenesis. In contrast, relatively little is known about population dynamic processes, by which bacteria colonize hosts and invade tissues and cells and thereby cause disease. In an article published in 1978, Moxon and Murphy presented evidence that, when inoculated intranasally with a mixture streptomycin sensitive and resistant (Sm S and Sm R ) and otherwise isogenic strains of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), neonatal rats develop a bacteremic infection that often is dominated by only one strain, Sm S or Sm R . After ruling out other possibilities through years of related experiments, the field seems to have settled on a plausible explanation for this phenomenon: the first bacterium to invade the host activates the host immune response that 'shuts the door' on the second invading strain. To explore this hypothesis in a necessarily quantitative way, we modeled this process with a set of mixed stochastic and deterministic differential equations. Our analysis of the properties of this model with realistic parameters suggests that this hypothesis cannot explain the experimental results of Moxon and Murphy, and in particular the observed relationship between the frequency of different types of blood infections (bacteremias) and the inoculum size. We propose modifications to the model that come closer to explaining these data. However, the modified and better fitting model contradicts the common theory of independent action of individual bacteria in establishing infections. We suggest possible experiments that would be able to confirm or reject our proposed modification of the early infection model.