[Estimating demand for anti-Chagas drugs: a contribution for access in Latin America].

Objective: Describe a tool to estimate demand for benznidazole and nifurtimox to treat Chagas disease, and report on its implementation in a group of Latin American countries.

Methods: The project was carried out in the following stages: 1) development of a tool to estimate demand, and definition of the evaluation and decision variables to estimate demand 2) data collection via a questionnaire completed by representatives of control programs, complemented with data from the literature; 3) presentation of the tool, followed by validation, and adaptation by representatives of the control programs in order to plan drug procurement for 2012 and 2013; and 4) further analysis of the obtained data, especially regarding benznidazole, and comparison of country estimates.

Results: Fourteen endemic countries of Latin America took part in the third stage, and a consolidated estimate was made. The number of estimated treatments, based on the number of tablets per treatment established in the regimen of reference was: 867 in the group under 1 year of age; 2 042 835 in the group from 1 to 15 years old; 2 028 in the group from 15 to 20 years old; and 10 248 in adults over 20. This means that it is possible to provide benznidazole to less than 1% of people for whom treatment is indicated.

Conclusions: The development and systematic use of demand management tools can play a key role in helping to provide access to the anti-Chagas drugs. There is a significant gap between the projected demand for drugs and current estimates of prevalence rates.