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Index to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Older Adults after Non-traumatic Emergency Department Intubations

Kei Ouchi, Samuel Hohmann, Tadahiro Goto, Peter Ueda, Emily L Aaronson, Daniel J Pallin, Marcia A Testa, James A Tulsky, Jeremiah D Schuur, Mara A Schonberg
Western Journal of Emergency Medicine 2017, 18 (4): 690-697

INTRODUCTION: Our goal was to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality in older adults after non-traumatic emergency department (ED) intubations.

METHODS: We used Vizient administrative data from hospitalizations of 22,374 adults ≥75 years who underwent non-traumatic ED intubation from 2008-2015 at nearly 300 U.S. hospitals to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality. We randomly selected one half of participants for the development cohort and one half for the validation cohort. Considering 25 potential predictors, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to determine factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We calculated risk scores using points derived from the final model's beta coefficients. To evaluate calibration and discrimination of the final model, we used Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and receiver-operating characteristic analysis and compared mortality by risk groups in the development and validation cohorts.

RESULTS: Death during the index hospitalization occurred in 40% of cases. The final model included six variables: history of myocardial infarction, history of cerebrovascular disease, history of metastatic cancer, age, admission diagnosis of sepsis, and admission diagnosis of stroke/ intracranial hemorrhage. Those with low-risk scores (<6) had 31% risk of in-hospital mortality while those with high-risk scores (>10) had 58% risk of in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square of the model was 6.47 (p=0.09), and the c-statistic was 0.62 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION: The model may be useful in identifying older adults at high risk of death after ED intubation.


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