Using Poisson-gamma model to evaluate the duration of recruitment process when historical trials are available.

At the design of clinical trial operation, a question of a paramount interest is how long it takes to recruit a given number of patients. Modelling the recruitment dynamics is the necessary step to answer this question. Poisson-gamma model provides very convenient, flexible and realistic approach. This model allows predicting the trial duration using data collected at an interim time with very good accuracy. A natural question arises: how to evaluate the parameters of recruitment model before the trial begins? The question is harder to handle as there are no recruitment data available for this trial. However, if there exist similar completed trials, it is appealing to use data from these trials to investigate feasibility of the recruitment process. In this paper, the authors explore the recruitment data of two similar clinical trials (Intergroupe Francais du Myélome 2005 and 2009). It is shown that the natural idea of plugging the historical rates estimated from the completed trial in the same centres of the new trial for predicting recruitment is not a relevant strategy. In contrast, using the parameters of a gamma distribution of the rates estimated from the completed trial in the recruitment dynamic model of the new trial provides reasonable predictive properties with relevant confidence intervals. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.