Can complications in febrile neutropenia be predicted? Report from a developing country.

PURPOSE: Febrile neutropenia (FN) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We aimed to look at complications in febrile neutropenia and to derive a risk model for developing complications from the variables predicting complications.

METHODS: Children on treatment for ALL, presenting with FN, were prospectively enrolled over a period of 1 year. Their clinical presentation, course during hospital stay, and outcomes were recorded. Complications recorded included septic shock, pneumonia requiring invasive or non-invasive ventilation, renal failure, neutropenic enterocolitis, encephalopathy, congestive heart failure, and bleeding manifestations.

RESULTS: There were 320 episodes of FN among 176 patients. Complications occurred during 73 (22.8%) episodes. Time since last chemotherapy ≤7 days [OR 2.2 (1-4.5)], clinical focus of infection [OR 2.7 (1.3-5.5)], undernutrition [OR 2.5 (1.1-5.5)], absolute neutrophil count (ANC) ≤ 100/μL [OR 2.8 (1.3-5.9)], and C-reactive protein (CRP) > 60 mg/L at admission [OR 13.3 (5.2-33.8)] were independent predictors of complications. A risk model (total score = 13) was developed based on these predictors. Children with score of ≥7 had 17.2 (7.7-38.6) odds of developing complications as compared to those with score <7. Score of <7 predicted children at lower risk of complications [sensitivity 88% (78.2-93.8%), specificity 72.5% (65.7-78.4%), PPV 53.6% (44.3-62.6%), NPV 94.4% (89.3-97.1%)].

CONCLUSIONS: Complications during febrile neutropenia are high in a developing country setup. A risk score model based on identified risk factors can possibly help in recognizing low-risk febrile neutropenic children at admission.