Long-Term Surveillance and Timeline of Progression of Presumed Low-Risk Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess risk of progression and rate of growth of presumed low-risk branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms surveyed for more than 4 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A keyword search of electronic medical charts was performed for the years 2001-2013. Cystic lesions that met the criteria for clinical branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, lacked baseline high-risk or worrisome features, and had more than 4 years of surveillance were included in this study. Two radiologists performed cyst size measurements to assess interreader variability. Cyst progression was defined either as 2-mm or greater or 20% or greater increase in diameter or as development of worrisome features. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to evaluate cyst progression time and linear mixed models to evaluate growth rates.

RESULTS: The search revealed 2423 patients with cystic pancreatic lesions. Among these patients 228 had imaging follow-up for 4 or more years, and 131 met the clinical criteria for branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms. Among the 131 cysts, 73 (55.7%) progressed: 61 (46.6%) increased in size, 10 (7.6%) increased in size and developed worrisome features, and two (1.5%) developed worrisome features only. Of the 71 cysts that increased in size, 50 (70.4%) did so within the first 5 years, and 21 (29.6%) grew after 5 years. No patient had adenocarcinoma. There was no significant difference in growth rate based on cyst size within the first 50 months. After 50 months, cysts larger than 20 mm continued to increase in size (p < 0.05) and had faster growth rates.

CONCLUSION: Among presumed low-risk branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, most increased in size, approximately 30% after 5 years. Cysts with baseline size larger than 20 mm continued to grow beyond 5 years at a faster rate.