Non-invasive tests for liver disease severity and the hepatocellular carcinoma risk in chronic hepatitis B patients with low-level viremia.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We tested whether non-invasive tests for liver disease severity can stratify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients showing low-level viremia (LLV, HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL).

METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 1006 chronic hepatitis B patients showing persistently LLV, defined by at least two consecutive assessments in the year before enrolment, was assessed for HCC development. Two non-invasive serum biomarkers, the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), were tested. Cirrhosis was defined with ultrasonography.

RESULTS: During a median 5.1 years of follow-up, HCC developed in 36 patients. HCC incidence rate at 5 years was significantly higher for cirrhotic patients (19/139, 13.7%), but was not null for non-cirrhotic patients (17/867, 2.0%, P<.001). APRI at a cut-off of 0.5 was more specific but less sensitive for HCC development, and FIB-4 at a cut-off of 1.45 was more sensitive but less specific. When both APRI and FIB-4 were used to group patients, the 5-year cumulative HCC incidence rate was 13.9%, 1.4% and 1.2% for both high, any high, and both low APRI and FIB-4 score among all patients (n=1006, P<.001), respectively, and was 11.4%, 1.5% and 0.4% in the same respective order among non-cirrhotic patients (n=867, P<.001).

CONCLUSIONS: The combined use of two non-invasive serum biomarkers (APRI and FIB-4) could stratify HCC risk for chronic HBV-infected patients with LLV.