Identification of the resection severity index as a significant independent prognostic factor for early mortality and observed survival >5 and >10 years after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates predictive factors for observed long-term survival of more than 5 and 10 years for patients after liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma and compares their life expectancy to the normal national population matched for sex, year of birth and age at resection.

METHODS: 230 patients after primary liver resection for HCC (01.01.1995-31.12.2004) were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression models were determined based on Cox regression results and their prognostic capability evaluated with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCs).

RESULTS: Life years after surgery in deceased patients compared to the normal national population matched for sex, year of birth and age at resection was reduced by median 21.7 years. Independent predictive factors for 10-year survival were age at resection (p < 0.001; OR = 0.898; 95%-CI: 0.846-0.954), UICC 7 tumor staging (p = 0.003; OR = 0.344; 95%-CI: 0.126-0.941) and ASAT (GOT) in U/l divided by Quick in percent multiplied by the extent of liver resection graded in points labelled as the resection severity index (p < 0.001; OR = 0.136; 95%-CI: 0.022-0.843) enabling prediction of 10-year survival with an AUROC of 0.884. The same factors plus revision surgery (yes/no) predict 5-year survival (AUROC 0.736).

CONCLUSIONS: Liver resection enables predictable long-term survival >5 and > 10 years. The proposed resection severity index quantifies the prognostic relevance of liver cellular damage, synthesis and loss of parenchyma for long-term survival.