Predicting the prevalence of cerebral palsy by severity level in children aged 3 to 15 years across England and Wales by 2020.

AIM: To estimate the number of children living with cerebral palsy (CP) in England and Wales in 2013 by severity, and to extrapolate this figure to 2020.

METHOD: Data from the North of England Collaborative Cerebral Palsy Survey for births during the period 1991 to 2000 were restricted to individuals aged at or above 3 years to estimate the prevalence of CP and to calculate 15-year survival by severity according to the number of severe impairments and lifestyle assessment score. The number of 3- to 15-year-olds with CP of different severity in England and Wales was estimated in 2013 and 2019 using actual and nationally projected births.

RESULTS: Cumulative survival estimates up to the age of 16 years in children with CP differ significantly by severity, ranging between 97 per cent and 100 per cent for children with non-severe CP, and between 64 per cent and 67 per cent for those with the most severe CP. By the end of 2013, the estimated number of children aged 3 to 15 years living with CP in England and Wales will be about 20 500 rising to approximately 22 100 by 2020, a 7.5 per cent increase.

INTERPRETATION: Owing to an increasing population, the number of children living with CP in England and Wales will increase by 2020. This will have significant implications for health and social care service planning.