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Association between smoking and alcohol-related behaviours: a time-series analysis of population trends in England.

Addiction 2017 October
AIMS: This paper estimates how far monthly changes in prevalence of cigarette smoking, motivation to quit and attempts to stop smoking have been associated with changes in prevalence of high-risk drinking, and motivation and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption in England.

DESIGN: Data were used from the Alcohol and Smoking Toolkit Studies between April 2014 and June 2016. These involve monthly household face-to-face surveys of representative samples of ~1700 adults in England.

MEASUREMENTS: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling was used to assess the association over time between monthly prevalence of (a) smoking and high-risk drinking; (b) high motivation to quit smoking and high motivation to reduce alcohol consumption; and (c) attempts to quit smoking and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption.

FINDINGS: Mean smoking prevalence over the study period was 18.6% and high-risk drinking prevalence was 13.0%. A decrease of 1% of the series mean smoking prevalence was associated with a reduction of 0.185% of the mean prevalence of high-risk drinking 2 months later [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.033 to 0.337, P = 0.017]. A statistically significant association was not found between prevalence of high motivation to quit smoking and high motivation to reduce alcohol consumption (β = 0.324, 95% CI = -0.371 to 1.019, P = 0.360) or prevalence of attempts to quit smoking and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption (β = -0.026, 95% CI = -1.348 to 1.296, P = 0.969).

CONCLUSION: Between 2014 and 2016, monthly changes in prevalence of smoking in England were associated positively with prevalence of high-risk drinking. There was no significant association between motivation to stop and motivation to reduce alcohol consumption, or attempts to quit smoking and attempts to reduce alcohol consumption.

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