Latent developmental trajectories of episodic heavy drinking from adolescence to early adulthood: Predictors of trajectory groups and alcohol problems in early adulthood as outcome.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: To identify latent developmental episodic heavy drinking (EHD) trajectory groups for Norwegian adolescents, investigate risk factors associated with group membership and to assess differences in alcohol problems between different groups in early adulthood.

DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were from 1266 individuals measured at four time points from age 13/14 years to age 26/27 years. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify groups with different EHD development. Multinomial logistic regression was used to investigated if gender, impulsivity, school commitment, parents' socio-economic status, frequency of seeing parents drunk and parental knowledge could predict group membership. Differences in alcohol problem scores at age 26/27 were also assessed.

RESULTS: Four trajectory groups were identified: 'stable high', 'early increasers', 'late increasers' and 'stable low'. Membership of the high-risk trajectory groups 'stable high' and 'early increasers' was predicted by high impulsivity, low school commitment, high frequency of seeing parents drunk and low parental knowledge. The risk of alcohol problems at age 26/27 was greater for the 'stable high' group, the 'early increasers' and the 'late increasers' compared with the 'stable low' group. The 'stable high' and 'early increasers' had similar risk of alcohol problems.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Stable high and early increasing EHD in adolescence was associated with more alcohol problems in early adulthood. Such trajectories were predicted by high impulsivity, low school commitment, high frequency of seeing parents drunk and low parental knowledge. [Brunborg GS, Norström T, Storvoll EE. Latent developmental trajectories of episodic heavy drinking from adolescence to early adulthood: Predictors of trajectory groups and alcohol problems in early adulthood as outcome.