Development of a new risk nomogram of perioperative major adverse cardiac events for Chinese patients undergoing colorectal carcinoma surgery.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to create a new risk nomogram to predict perioperative major adverse cardiac events in patients undergoing colorectal carcinoma surgery.

METHODS: A total of 1899 patients who underwent colorectal carcinoma surgery at a tertiary teaching hospital in China between 2007 and 2012 were recruited. Logistic regression analysis was used to define risk factors for major adverse cardiac events. A nomogram-predicting model was built based on the logistic regression model and discrimination was tested by receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS: Fifty-six (2.9%) among 1899 included patients developed at least one cardiac event. Eight risk factors were found in the multivariate logistic regression model, which included age ≥60 years, smoking, a history of chronic kidney disease, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, hypertension, preoperative albumin levels ≤35 g/L, blood transfusion ≥500 mL, and intraoperative blood pressure variability. P = 0.708 in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration power. Based on this multivariate model, we built a risk nomogram model for these cardiac events with an area under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.923 (0.889, 0.957), which demonstrated good discrimination of this model. When the probability cutoff was 1.9% (total score of 83), the nomogram model had the best sensitivity and specificity in predicting cardiac events.

CONCLUSIONS: A new nomogram model for predicting perioperative major adverse cardiac events in patients who had colorectal carcinoma surgery was established in this study. When the total score is >83, patients undergoing colorectal carcinoma surgery should be considered at high risk of perioperative major adverse cardiac events.