[Feasibility of the 2014 European guidelines risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in Chinese patients].

Objective: Exploring the feasibility of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology(ESC)guideline's risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-SCD) in Chinese patients. Methods: The study population consisted of a consecutive cohort of 172 Chinese patients with HCM without prior sudden cardiac death (SCD) event who were in patients in Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from December 2010 to October 2015.The endpoint event was a composite of SCD and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy.Clinical data were collected to calculate the 5-year SCD risk using the HCM Risk-SCD formula and to observe the actual risk during the follow-up.Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) and the area under curve (AUC) were calculated for the HCM Risk-SCD and risk stratification methods of the 2011 American Heart Association (AHA) guideline. Results: During follow-up of (2.69±1.36) years, five patients achieved the endpoint event.The predicated rate of SCD event using HCM Risk-SCD was (2.36±1.73)%, (1.93±0.78)%, (5.18±0.65)%, (8.77±2.38)% for all patients, low-risk group, medium-risk group and high-risk group respectively.However, the actual rate of SCD event was 2.91%, 1.27%, 25.00% and 14.29%, respectively.The AUC of 2014 ESC guideline and 2011 AHA guidelinewas 0.93(95%CI 0.85-1.00) vs. 0.87(95%CI 0.75-0.98). Conclusion: The predicated rate of SCD event calculated by HCM Risk-SCD is lower than actual rate of SCD, but the prediction efficiency and indication for ICD implantation of HCM Risk-SCD are better than that of 2011 AHA guideline.