Validation of the MDS research criteria for prodromal Parkinson's disease: Longitudinal assessment in a REM sleep behavior disorder (RBD) cohort.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society introduced the prodromal criteria for PD. Objectives Our study aimed to examine diagnostic accuracy of the criteria as well as the independence of prodromal markers to predict conversion to PD or dementia with Lewy bodies.

METHODS: This prospective cohort study was performed on 121 individuals with rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder who were followed annually for 1 to 12 years. Using data from a comprehensive panel of prodromal markers, likelihood ratio and post-test probability of the criteria were calculated at baseline and during each follow-up visit.

RESULTS: Forty-eight (39.7%) individuals with rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder converted to PD/dementia with Lewy bodies. The prodromal criteria had 81.3% sensitivity and 67.9% specificity for conversion to PD/dementia with Lewy bodies at 4-year follow-up. One year before conversion, sensitivity was 100%. The criteria predicted dementia with Lewy bodies with even higher accuracy than PD without dementia at onset. Those who met the threshold of prodromal criteria at baseline had significantly more rapid conversion into a neurodegenerative state (4.8 vs. 9.1 years; P < 0.001). Pair-wise combinations of different prodromal markers showed that markers were independent of one another.

CONCLUSION: The prodromal criteria are a promising tool for predicting incidence of PD/dementia with Lewy bodies and conversion time in a rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder cohort, with high sensitivity and high specificity with long follow-up. Prodromal markers influence the overall likelihood ratio independently, allowing them to be reliably multiplied. Defining additional markers with high likelihood ratio, further studies with longitudinal assessment and testing thresholds in different target populations will improve the criteria. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.