Analysis of the Spatial Pattern of Strawberry Angular Leaf Spot in California Nursery Production.

In California, angular leaf spot (ALS) is a common disease in strawberry nursery production, and a major concern for nurseries wishing to export plants. As the spatial pattern of a disease can offer insight into pathogen source, mode of dissemination, and how current crop management practices affect epidemic development, an understanding of the spatial pattern of ALS would allow nursery growers to make informed decisions regarding disease management. Ninety-seven field assessments of disease incidence were performed at different nursery locations in 2014 and 2015 to quantify ALS spatial pattern under commercial conditions. Both point-pattern and geostatistical statistical procedures were used to analyze the data. The spatial pattern of ALS was characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, as indicated by high median values of the beta-binomial distribution's theta parameter (0.643), and the index of dispersion, D (4.218). The binary power law provided a robust description of the data with estimated slope and intercept parameters significantly greater than 1 and 0, respectively (P < 0.001). Spatial analysis by distance indices (SADIE) detected significant nonrandom spatial arrangements for 64% of the data sets. Analysis of directional disease spread showed a strong spatial association between sampling units along the same planting row. This suggests that recurrent crop operations during the growing season play a significant role in ALS spread and should be taken into account to improve disease control.