Cluster Analysis on Longitudinal Data of Patients with Adult-Onset Asthma.

BACKGROUND: Previous cluster analyses on asthma are based on cross-sectional data.

OBJECTIVE: To identify phenotypes of adult-onset asthma by using data from baseline (diagnostic) and 12-year follow-up visits.

METHODS: The Seinäjoki Adult Asthma Study is a 12-year follow-up study of patients with new-onset adult asthma. K-means cluster analysis was performed by using variables from baseline and follow-up visits on 171 patients to identify phenotypes.

RESULTS: Five clusters were identified. Patients in cluster 1 (n = 38) were predominantly nonatopic males with moderate smoking history at baseline. At follow-up, 40% of these patients had developed persistent obstruction but the number of patients with uncontrolled asthma (5%) and rhinitis (10%) was the lowest. Cluster 2 (n = 19) was characterized by older men with heavy smoking history, poor lung function, and persistent obstruction at baseline. At follow-up, these patients were mostly uncontrolled (84%) despite daily use of inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) with add-on therapy. Cluster 3 (n = 50) consisted mostly of nonsmoking females with good lung function at diagnosis/follow-up and well-controlled/partially controlled asthma at follow-up. Cluster 4 (n = 25) had obese and symptomatic patients at baseline/follow-up. At follow-up, these patients had several comorbidities (40% psychiatric disease) and were treated daily with ICS and add-on therapy. Patients in cluster 5 (n = 39) were mostly atopic and had the earliest onset of asthma, the highest blood eosinophils, and FEV1 reversibility at diagnosis. At follow-up, these patients used the lowest ICS dose but 56% were well controlled.

CONCLUSIONS: Results can be used to predict outcomes of patients with adult-onset asthma and to aid in development of personalized therapy (NCT02733016 at ClinicalTrials.gov).