Predictors of eGFR progression, stabilisation or improvement after chronic renal impairment in HIV-positive individuals.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this analysis were to investigate predictors of progression, stabilisation or improvement in eGFR after development of chronic renal impairment (CRI) in HIV-positive individuals.

DESIGN: Prospective observational study.

METHODS: D:A:D study participants progressing to CRI defined as confirmed, ≥3 months apart, eGFR≤70 mL/min/1.73m were included in the analysis. The median of all eGFRs measured 24-36 months post-CRI was compared to the median eGFR defining CRI, and changes were grouped into: improvement (>+10 mL/min/1.73m), stabilisation (-10 to +10 mL/min/1.73m) and progression (<-10 mL/min/1.73m). Adjusted polynomial regression models assessed odds of better eGFR outcomes after CRI, assuming eGFR improvement is better than stabilisation which in turn is better than progression.

RESULTS: Of 2006 individuals developing CRI, 21% subsequently improved eGFR, 67% stabilised and 12% progressed. Individuals remaining on TDF or boosted atazanavir (ATV/r) 24 months post-CRI had worse eGFR outcomes compared to those unexposed (TDF: 0.47 [0.35-0.63], ATV/r: 0.63 [0.48-0.82]). Individuals off TDF for 12-24 months (0.75 [0.50-1.13]) or off ATV/r for >12 months (1.17 [0.87-1.57]) had similar eGFR outcomes as those unexposed to these ARVs. Older age, hypertension, later date of CRI and diabetes were associated with worse eGFR outcomes.

CONCLUSION: Current TDF and ATV/r use after a diagnosis of CRI was associated with worse eGFR outcomes. In contrast, TDF and ATV/r discontinuation lead to similar longer-term eGFR outcomes as in those unexposed suggesting these drug- associated eGFR declines may be halted or reversed after their cessation.