Modelling of Escherichia coli concentrations in bathing water at microtidal coasts.

Monitoring of the quality of bathing water in line with the European Commission bathing water directive (Directive 2006/7/EC) is a significant economic expense for those countries with great lengths of coastline. In this study a numerical model based on finite elements is generated whose objective is partially substituting the microbiological analysis of the quality of coastal bathing waters. According to a study of the concentration of Escherichia coli in 299 Spanish Mediterranean beaches, it was established that the most important variables that influence the concentration are: monthly sunshine hours, mean monthly precipitation, number of goat cattle heads, population density, presence of Posidonia oceanica, UV, urbanization level, type of sediment, wastewater treatment ratio, salinity, distance to the nearest discharge, and wave height perpendicular to the coast. Using these variables, a model with an absolute error of 10.6±1.5CFU/100ml is achieved. With this model, if there are no significant changes in the beach environment and the variables remain more or less stable, the concentration of E. coli in bathing water can be determined, performing only specific microbiological analyses to verify the water quality.