European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer.

Background: We predicted cancer mortality figures in the European Union (EU) for the year 2017 using most recent available data, with a focus on lung cancer.

Materials and methods: We retrieved cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organisation and Eurostat databases. Age-standardized (world standard population) rates were computed for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK and the EU overall in 1970-2012. We obtained estimates for 2017 by implementing a joinpoint regression model.

Results: The predicted number of cancer deaths for 2017 in the EU is 1 373 500, compared with 1 333 400 in 2012 (+3%). Cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in both sexes, reaching 131.8/100 000 men (-8.2% when compared with 2012) and 84.5/100 000 women (-3.6%). Mortality rates for all selected cancer sites are predicted to decline, except pancreatic cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women. In men, pancreatic cancer rate is stable, in women it increases by 3.5%. Lung cancer mortality rate in women is predicted to rise to 14.6/100 000 in 2017 (+5.1% since 2012, corresponding to 92 300 predicted deaths), compared with 14.0/100 000 for breast cancer, corresponding to 92 600 predicted deaths. Only younger (25-44) women have favourable lung cancer trends, and rates at this age group are predicted to be similar in women (1.4/100 000) and men (1.2/100 000). In men lung cancer rates are predicted to decline by 10.7% since 2012, and falls are observed in all age groups.

Conclusion: European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.