Pancreatic Cancer Incidence and Lethality Rates in Brazil: An Ecological Study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe incidence and lethality time trends rates of pancreatic cancer (PC) in Brazil.

METHODS: Data from Brazilian Health National Public System (SUS) were retrospectively collected with regard to PC from January 2005 to December 2012. Pancreatic cancer incidence and lethality rates were estimated from SUS hospitalizations and in-hospital PC deaths and adjusted to total available hospital beds.

RESULTS: From 2005 to 2012, a total of 36,332 admissions for PC were registered in Brazil. Pancreatic cancer incidence nearly doubled from 2.4/100,000 to 4.5/100,000, particularly among patients older than 70 years, whereas no difference in sex was noted. The greatest incidence rates increase (+109%) occurred in the northeast, a less developed region that has recently achieved significant economic advances. Dynamic changes were observed, notably a shift to increasing PC incidence in rural areas. Lethality rates increased from mean 25% to 27%, the highest rates registered in those 70 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall increase trends in PC incidence and lethality were observed. Pancreatic cancer remains an urban disease in Brazil, the highest incidence found in the most developed regions as in large metropolitan integrated municipalities. Improvement in diagnosis, notification quality, a rapidly aging population, and a great demographic dynamism could in part explain this fact.