The effects of the lower ignition propensity cigarettes standard in Estonia: time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: In 2011, the lower ignition propensity (LIP) standard for cigarettes was implemented in the European Union. Evidence about the impact of that safety measure is scarce.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to examine the effects of the LIP standard on fire safety in Estonia.

METHODS: The absolute level of smoking-related fire incidents and related deaths was modelled using dynamic time-series regression analysis. The data about house fire incidents for the 2007-2013 period were obtained from the Estonian Rescue Board.

RESULTS: Implementation of the LIP standard has reduced the monthly level of smoking-related fires by 6.2 (p<0.01, SE=1.95) incidents and by 26% (p<0.01, SE=9%) when estimated on the log scale. Slightly weaker evidence was found about the fatality reduction effects of the LIP regulation. All results were confirmed through counterfactual models for non-smoking-related fire incidents and deaths.

CONCLUSIONS: This paper indicates that implementation of the LIP cigarettes standard has improved fire safety in Estonia.