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Exploring the relation between changes in NT-proBNP and renal function in patients with suspected heart failure using structural equation modelling.

BACKGROUND: The relation between changes in NT-proBNP and renal function has commonly been studied using multiple regressions, which may ignore the complexity of relations between related variables.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were collected from patients referred with suspected heart failure (HF) to a community service. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to assess the association between changes in NT-proBNP at 1year, and other pre-specified variables including age, sex, BMI, eGFR, loop diuretics and ACE inhibitor. Of 1006 patients with a follow-up NT-proBNP at 1year, 882 (88%) had HF. The baseline median age was 72 (IQR: 63-78) years, 732 (73%) were men, 668 (66%) had left ventricular systolic dysfunction and 769 (76%) had NT-proBNP>400pg/ml. For all patients at 1year, 243 (24%) patients had at least a 50% reduction in NT-proBNP, and 199 (20%) had at least a 50% increase, only 40 (3%) had <3% change. Change in NT-proBNP was strongly associated with baseline NT-proBNP (the standardized coefficient (r)=0.73, p<0.001). The change in NT-proBNP was not associated with changes in eGFR, and was indirectly related with age, BMI, eGFR and loop diuretics (p<0.01 for all).

CONCLUSIONS: Baseline NT-proBNP was the main determinant of change in NT-proBNP at one year.

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