Infarct localization from myocardial deformation: Prediction and uncertainty quantification by regression from a low-dimensional space.

Diagnosing and localizing myocardial infarct is crucial for early patient management and therapy planning. We propose a new method for predicting the location of myocardial infarct from local wall deformation, which has value for risk stratification from routine examinations such as (3D) echocardiography. The pipeline combines non-linear dimensionality reduction of deformation patterns and two multi-scale kernel regressions. Confidence in the diagnosis is assessed by a map of local uncertainties, which integrates plausible infarct locations generated from the space of reduced dimensionality. These concepts were tested on 500 synthetic cases generated from a realistic cardiac electromechanical model, and 108 pairs of 3D echocardiographic sequences and delayed-enhancement magnetic resonance images from real cases. Infarct prediction is made at a spatial resolution around 4 mm, more than 10 times smaller than the current diagnosis, made regionally. Our method is accurate, and significantly outperforms the clinically-used thresholding of the deformation patterns (on real data: sensitivity / specificity of 0:828=0:804, area under the curve: 0:909 vs. 0:742 for the most predictive strain component). Uncertainty adds value to refine the diagnosis and eventually re-examine suspicious cases.