Progression, incidence, and risk factors for intervertebral disc degeneration in a longitudinal population-based cohort: the Wakayama Spine Study.

OBJECTIVE: The present study examined the progression, incidence, and risk factors for intervertebral disc degeneration (DD) throughout the lumbar spine using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS: We followed up 617 subjects for more than 4 years as part of the Wakayama Spine Study. 1) "Progression of DD" in each of the entire, upper (L1/2 to L3/4) and lower (L4/5 and L5/S1) lumbar spine was defined as Pfirrmann grade progression at follow-up in at least one disc in the affected region. 2) "Incidence of DD" in each of these regions was defined if all discs were grade 3 or lower (white disc) at baseline, and at least one disc had progressed to grade 4 or higher (black disc) at follow-up. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors for progression and incidence of DD.

RESULTS: DD progression and incidence in the entire lumbar spine were 52.0% and 31.6% in men, and 60.4% and 44.7% in women, respectively. Women was associated with DD progression in the upper lumbar spine (odds ratio [OR] = 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-2.42). Aging was associated with the incidence of DD in each region (entire: OR = 1.14, CI = 1.06-1.14; upper: OR = 1.10, CI = 1.05-1.15; lower: OR = 1.11, CI = 1.05-1.19). Diabetes mellitus (DM) was associated with the incidence of DD in the upper lumbar spine (OR = 6.83, CI = 1.07-133.7).

CONCLUSION: This 4-year longitudinal study is the first to demonstrate DD progression and incidence in the lumbar spine and their risk factors in a large population-based cohort.