Comparing antibiotic treatment for leptospirosis using network meta-analysis: a tutorial.

BACKGROUND: Network meta-analysis consists of simultaneous analysis of both direct comparisons of interventions within randomized controlled trials and indirect comparisons across trials based on a common comparator. In this paper, we aimed to characterise the conceptual understanding and the rationale for the use of network meta-analysis in assessing drug efficacy.

METHODS: We selected randomized controlled trials, assessing efficacy of antibiotics for the treatment of leptospirosis as a case study. A pairwise meta-analysis was conducted using a random effect model, assuming that different studies assessed different but related treatment effects. The analysis was then extended to a network meta-analysis, which consists of direct and indirect evidence in a network of antibiotics trials, using a suite of multivariate meta-analysis routines of STATA (mvmeta command). We also assessed an assumption of 'consistency' that estimates of treatment effects from direct and indirect evidence are in agreement.

RESULTS: Seven randomised controlled trials were identified for this analysis. These RCTs assessed the efficacy of antibiotics such as penicillin, doxycycline and cephalosporin for the treatment of human leptospirosis. These studies made comparisons between antibiotics (i.e. an antibiotic versus alternative antibiotic) in the primary study and a placebo, except for cephalosporin. These studies were sufficient to allow the creation of a network for the network meta-analysis; a closed loop in which three comparator antibiotics were connected to each other through a polygon. The comparison of penicillin versus the placebo has the largest contribution to the entire network (31.8%). The assessment of rank probabilities indicated that penicillin presented the greatest likelihood of improving efficacy among the evaluated antibiotics for treating leptospirosis.

CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that network meta-analysis, a meta-analysis comparing multiple treatments, is feasible and should be considered as better precision of effect estimates for decisions when several antibiotic options are available for the treatment of leptospirosis.