Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in outpatients with cirrhosis in Brazil: A 10-year retrospective cohort study.

AIM: To determine the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and the impact of HCC surveillance on early diagnosis and survival of cirrhotic outpatients.

METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, cirrhotic outpatients undergoing HCC surveillance between March 2005 and March 2014 were analyzed. Exclusion criteria were HIV coinfection; previous organ transplantation; diagnosis of HCC at first consultation; missing data in the medical chart; and less than 1 year of follow-up. Surveillance was carried out every six months using ultrasound and serum alpha-fetoprotein determination. Ten-year cumulative incidence and survival were estimated through Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS: Four hundred and fifty-three patients were enrolled, of which 57.6% were male. Mean age was 55 years. Hepatitis C virus and heavy use of alcohol were the main etiologic agents of cirrhosis. HCC was diagnosed in 75 patients (16.6%), with an estimated cumulative incidence of 2.6% in the 1st year, 15.4% in the 5th year, and 28.8% in the 10th year. Median survival was estimated at 17.6 mo in HCC patients compared to 234 mo in non-HCC patients (P < 0.001). Early-stage HCC was more often detected in patients who underwent surveillance every 6 mo or less (P = 0.05). However, survival was not different between patients with early stage vs non-early stage tumors [HR = 0.54 (0.15-1.89), P = 0.33].

CONCLUSION: HCC is a frequent complication in patients with cirrhosis and adherence to surveillance programs favors early diagnosis.