Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Predicts All-Cause Mortality in a Dose-Response Fashion in Pre-Dialysis Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Quantitative dose-response associations between fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) and risks of mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and renal events in chronic kidney disease (CKD) are not known. This study aimed to summarize and quantify the predictive effects of FGF23 among the pre-dialysis CKD stages 1-5 population.

METHODS: Data sources included PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science. Prospective cohort studies assessing the associations between FGF23 and all-cause mortality, CVD, and renal events in CKD patients were selected. Summary risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model. The composite higher or the highest level in FGF23 categories of each study was considered the high level. The reference level was regarded as the low level in the overall analysis. The restricted cubic spline model was used to estimate dose-response associations.

RESULTS: Fifteen prospective cohort studies centered around 15,355 subjects were analyzed. A high FGF23 level was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.38-1.55, p < 0.001), CVD (RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15-1.63, p < 0.001), and renal events (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.07-1.59, p = 0.008), respectively. There was a positive, nonlinear, dose-response relationship between FGF23 and all-cause mortality. The reference level in dose-response analysis was defined as 51 RU/mL of c-terminal FGF23. We then calculated RRs for increments of 20 RU/mL, which was associated with increased risks of mortality (RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07, p = 0.038), CVD (RR 1.02, p < 0.001), and renal events (RR 1.01, p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: There may be positive dose-response predictive effects of FGF23 on all-cause mortality, CVD, and renal events in patients with CKD.