Motor neuron disease mortality and lifetime petrol lead exposure: Evidence from national age-specific and state-level age-standardized death rates in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The age standardized death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) for persons 40-84 years of age in the Australian States of New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland increased dramatically from 1958 to 2013. Nationally, age-specific MND death rates also increased over this time period, but the rate of the rise varied considerably by age-group. The historic use of lead (Pb) additives in Australian petrol is a candidate explanation for these trends in MND mortality (International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 G12.2).

METHODS: Leveraging temporal and spatial variation in petrol lead exposure risk resulting from the slow rise and rapid phase-out of lead as a constituent in gasoline in Australia, we analyze relationships between (1) national age-specific MND death rates in Australia and age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure, (2) annual between-age dispersions in age-specific MND death rates and age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure; and (3) state-level age-standardized MND death rates as a function of age-weighted lifetime petrol lead exposure.

RESULTS: Other things held equal, we find that a one percent increase in lifetime petrol lead exposure increases the MND death rate by about one-third of one percent in both national age-specific and state-level age-standardized models of MND mortality. Lending support to the supposition that lead exposure is a driver of MND mortality risk, we find that the annual between-age group standard deviation in age-specific MND death rates is strongly correlated with the between-age standard deviation in age-specific lifetime petrol lead exposure.

CONCLUSION: Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with age-specific MND death rates as well as state-level age-standardized MND death rates in Australia. Results indicate that we are approaching peak lead exposure-attributable MND mortality.