Increased temperature delays the late-season phenology of multivoltine insect.

We analyzed the impact of increased water temperature on the late-season phenology of the mayfly (Baetis liebenauae). The River Gwda, unlike two other examined rivers (controls), has reservoirs along its length and thus, higher water temperature. Elevated water temperature prolonged summer diapause of the mayfly and shifted its life cycle to the later autumn: the last generation of mayflies started development later in the Gwda than in the control rivers. This translated into terrestrial stages (subimagos) of the insect being more abundant at the water surface in the late autumn in the Gwda river than in the control rivers. The low water temperature in the late autumn hampers subimagos emergence from the water surface. Thus, the altered insect phenology at Gwda resulted in a largely lost generation. However, the effect of reservoirs on the river water temperature was context-dependent, with the heating effect (and the impact on mayfly phenology) weaker in the year with lower average air temperature. In summary, warming blurred the environmental cue used by mayflies to tune their phenology, which resulted in a developmental trap. Since the projections of increases in global temperatures reach even 6.4 °C, reported mechanisms will potentially also occur in non-transformed watercourses.